Wednesday, January 28, 2009

The grand coalition continues on.

Just saw Ignatieff on the news channels. He says that he'll support the budget, without substantial amendments, but the government is "on probation". Which means it's business as usual: the Liberals will talk a good game about opposing the Conservatives, but won't do anything of significance to actually oppose them. Harper has shown, repeatedly, that he can't be trusted. And what the Liberals have come up with is "regular reports" -- from the guy who can't be trusted.

This also shows, I think, that any hopes of a lasting coalition with the Liberals can only be premised on electoral reform eliminating (except in the rarest of circumstances) the possibility of majority government. Otherwise, the Liberals will say "coalition" until they think there's an advantage in not saying it.

I'm not particularly surprised by this. Ignatieff has shown, before he even came back to Canada, that he's quite gifted at looking out for his own interests, regardless of what might be good for anyone else and regardless of the behaviour that would actually be right. And switching Dion for Ignatieff hasn't made the Liberals into a different party, so it was probably hopeful to believe that they would change their ways.

My current bet is we'll be back at the polls again within six months, three at the inside. Harper's now in the driver's seat, and will ask the GG to drop the writ when he thinks he's back in majority territory. I also expect to see the Conservatives start to rev their ad campaign back up, and start fighting the next election now.

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