Saturday, December 06, 2008

Polls are fun.

These numbers are floating around:

Ipsos: CPC 46, LPC 23, NDP 13, BQ 9, GPC 8
Ekos: CPC 44, LPC 24, NDP 15, BQ 9, GPC 8

So, for the sake of democracy, the argument goes, Harper should still be king PM. Except, by my count, the CPC is still below 50%; the Libs+NDP+BQ are one point back in the Ipsos poll, and four points up in the Ekos poll; and in both polls, the Greens have 8% support yet still no seats in the HoC.

Yeah. Democracy's awesome, isn't it? At least, if your definition of "democracy" includes almost a tenth of the voting population having no representation in Parliament and picking a PM arbitrarily out of a statistical dead-heat. To say nothing of the biased questioning and unmeasured effects of the Con message machine, both points being dealt with adequately elsewhere on ProgBlogs.

Honestly, if this is the best argument Con-bots have, then they should quit now to save themselves further embarrassment.


Davey Crocket said...

I think this is simply an indication of poor coalition strategy. Dion, to be blunt, is a terrible leader. Not to mention the money advantage the Cons have to play to people's ignorance. Your post on using the Internet to its advantage is one thing that def. needs to be done, because Harper is the sort of person that is a total turn off with his pithy little smirk and autocratic, hyper partisan and un-Canadian ways.

Ian said...

It's shameful in this country that polling at 45% means you likely have a majority of seats in an election. I think many Reformers originally wanted electoral reform... Now they have their power though.

ADHR said...


Dion should not be the public face of the coalition; Layton, right now, should be. He's got the Toronto thing to overcome, but he's got the necessary fire and he can handle the crowd. They do need a serious media strategy, though.


It's worse than you think. In the recent Conservative Party convention, there was a motion (no idea if it passed) to remove language requiring proportional representation. If you go here (.pdf), and go to page 7, you'll see it. So much for principle, eh?